Cadbury

We have an unusual chart about what the market is thinking about the 16 bln USD cash and stock offer from Kraft for Cadbury. The credit default swap spread for Kraft in the 5 years is jumping. A normal reaction to new that an already indebted company plans to load his balance sheet with even more debt. This spread will only widen because Kraft will be pushed to sweeten the offer or to tolerate another bidder.

Who could that be? The CDS market gambles on Hershey rather than on Nestlé, even though Nestlé has seen as the most viable alternative bidder.
Intriguing.

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Van der Moolen

Van der Moolen, the Dutch market maker and broker that unsuccessfully tried to transform itself into a high frequency trading shop after being muscled out of the US market by increasingly algorithmic-focused competition, on Thursday filed for bankruptcy.

The bankruptcy of VDM can be attributed to a combination of factors that appeared in a period of a number of years: big losses in the US, unsuccessful new initiatives like Online Trader, decreasing revenues in connection due to the financial crisis and a cost pattern that structurally exceeded the benefits.

Adieu

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Dollar and stocks: any logic?

Stock market and dollar act completely uncoupled now. The dollar we measure through the DXY ETF. Some-one should tell these computers they have to go the other way around.

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Warren Buffett and housing

Warren Buffett is positioning Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) to profit when the housing and property market returns to more normal levels. Now, he is teaming up with what many investors consider a “Buffett rival.” Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK-A) is teaming up with Leucadia National Corp. (NYSE: LUK) to acquire the North American mortgage and servicing operations of Capmark Financial Group Inc. Interestingly enough, a company affiliated with Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway called HomeServices of America made a real estate firm acquisition in Chicago earlier this week.

Berkshire Hathaway probably has $50 billion that can be used for deals in the near-term and intermediate-term.

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Inspiration

From the FT:

The dollar fell to its lowest level in almost a year on Tuesday as a rally in gold prices above $1,000 an ounce and fresh concerns over its reserve status weighed on the US currency. Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ said the dollar's near-term prospects did not look particularly encouraging. "Gold has just broken through the $1,000 level and this along with the dollar index approaching its lows may well encourage another wave of speculative dollar selling," he said. The dollar index, which tracks its progress against a basket of six major currencies, fell to a low of 77.398, breaking through the lows it hit in early August to fall to its weakest level since September 30 2008.

• Gold mining ETF GDX rockets 12%... gold jumps over $1,000 an ounce.
• Teen retailers Gap and Aeropostale hit new highs... Abercrombie drops 12% last week.
• Semiconductor makers extend gains... Silicon Labs, Advanced Semi, and others reach 52-week highs. Sphere: Related Content