Thursday 30 April 2009

This sector is breaking out...

Schlumberger is an example of how the oil service industry fared lately. Looking to the first quarter earnings of this company, we observe how they tumbled with 30%. The world's largest oilfield services company said net income in the January-to-March period fell to $938.5 million, or 78 cents per share, versus $1.34 billion, or $1.09 per share, a year earlier.

But if one take a look to the OIH index than we see the bullish sign.


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Flying too high

There are three Mexican airport stocks: Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ticker: ASR), Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (ticker: PAC), and Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte (ticker: OMAB). Although they seem financially in a good shape, they can not escape the fall-out of the swine flu reports.
And they are hit. But not too hard, until now.

If governments however wil start to issue negative advices to go to Mexico, this may change.


Don’t forget to look to this category of stocks once this outburst of fear is over.
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Stampede of the bulls?

We like this picture from Tim Knight about the S&P500:
It’s a very good illustration of what is happening in the markets lately.
We recognize the first bullish move and then the 2 ever weakening consolidation phases.




The latest phase was not positive. Until yesterday, when the declining trend line was broken to the upside.
The bulls are running everywhere today. But the indexes are overbought, so where will they find the strength to overcome this hurdle?


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Wednesday 29 April 2009

Bull run - Part 3

Looking to another indicator, we see that the NASDAQ 100 Bullish Percent Index touches 77. Meaning 77 of the 100 components produce a buy signal based on the point-and-figure theory. That’s high. Toppish.
But it can take a while before things will roll over.


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Bull run - Part 2

The NASDAQ McClellan Summation index has risen very far, but nowhere we can see any sign of weakness.
So if you bet on a decline of this index – be very careful because timing will be very important as one rally is not equal to another.


Now let’s add another indicator: the MACD. Here we look to the NYSE McClellan Summation index. If the MACD rolls over, this indicator follows suit. And also precludes a trend in the index.

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Bull run - part 1

FED Day.
Nobody pays attention anymore, these days, to the FED action. Rates are zero… so what. However it’s worth to mention that the last three FOMC sessions, stocks performed very well every time.
So, come on FED, throw us some quantitative easing.

The hourly renko chart of the Standard & Poors 500 seems ready for another break-out in the early trading hours. Nothing can hold these markets back. Signed: Goldman Sachs who takes as a liquidity provider more than 20% of the daily volume for his own account….


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Tuesday 28 April 2009

We can fly...

The swine flu prompted the WHO to increase its alert to an unprecedented phase four.
Should we be scared?

Why don’t they do the same thing with stock exchanges as we are confronted with this phenomenon in opening (avance/decline market breadth is a whopping three:one on the NYSE)
It’s a wonderful world.


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Where eagles dare...

Soon it will be the only way to escape the Emerald Isle as Irish carrier Aer Lingus announced some news about revenue and other numbers. Everything seems to detoriate even quicker than the government fortunes. A sort of landing has set in.
Time to sell?

Elsewhere we observe a take-off…

Although we think a correction is well underway, we observe that some beaten stock markets continue to perform well. We want to mention Russia. After the steep fall, Russian stocks are gaining track again.
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In our banks we trust...

The WSJ is leaking information about the results of the stress test. Is this a coincidence just before the FOMC-meeting? Word is out that Citigroup and Bank of America are told to raise more capital.

Than we like the Italians more: they seized 300 mln USD in assets from 4 banks. Italian banks? Of course not. JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Depfa are the ‘victims’. In pure Latin American style their officials have been accused of fraud.
It’s tough to be a banker these days.

In tiny Belgium a shareholder meeting of Fortis started this morning and is 6 hours later the first vote has still to come. The bankers are surrounded by bodyguards and everbody is yelling to everybody.
Pure Italian style.
We find this in The Telegraph:

As the recession tightens its grip on the economy, guess who's doing just fine, thank you very much. Yes, after a blip last year, bankers are raking it in again. City and Wall Street bonuses are likely to bounce back in 2009, virtually unhindered by tight-fisted remuneration committees or draconian rules.
At the darkest hour of the financial crisis, when banks were going bust and governments were stepping in to save the system, it looked as if investment bankers' glory days were over – if not for ever, then at least for a respectable interlude, while the corpses were buried and the injured carried off the field.

But a quarter is a long time in banking. In recent months, profits have staged a remarkable recovery, as financial markets stabilised. Barclays and Goldman Sachs reported a sharp improvement in their fixed income, currencies and commodities businesses in the first quarter, while J P Morgan enjoyed "record results in credit trading, emerging markets and rates". At some banks, losses on old, bad debt continue to dent profits, but current conditions are surprisingly favourable
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Monday 27 April 2009

No more bears

It’s like waiting for rain.
In the desert.
And it is not coming.
So are we waiting for the bear market in financial stocks to resume.
But it’s like waiting for Godot.
The FAZ is unraveling and soon we will be able to buy it without any risk.
Where are the bears?


The renko chart is not pointing to any recovery soon.




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If pigs could fly...yes, they can

The Mexican flu has the world in his grip. In less than one week. Now, that’s fast. Governments are checking their stockpiles of vaccines. Most of them are stocking Tamiflu (Roche).
But in Australia there is a very small biotech company that has a share in the other drug from competitor GlaxosmithKline: Relenza.
If we may believe the reports, the drug is very effective, but… There are some inconveniences that make it difficult to market. The most important is that the drug only works in the very first phase of an influenza infection. And that point is very difficult to determine. What is a cold, an allergy or the start of swine flu?

The stock jumped 60% today in Australia. Biota has a market cap of 250 mln AUD and 60 mln AUD cash and equivalents.
So if you believe in a global catastrophe, this is your pick…

Or you can look to Deutsche Bank Agriculture short ETN (ticker: ADZ) or to AGA and BOM where a flavor of leverage is added.

More, losers for the moment are airline stocks, tour operators and animal breeders.

From Dennis (the Menace) Gartman, we learn:

This is over-reaction of the very first order, for “swine flu” does not affect livestock; it does not render livestock production useless; it should not result in massive liquidation of the livestock herd… but that does not matter at the moment. At the moment the specs are liquidating livestock and grain, and the margin clerks have the pencils sharpened and their sell orders in hand. For the moment, nothing else… not even rationality… means anything. Panic, rather than reason, have swept through the markets and are having their way with them.
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A hanging man

A hanging man is a very powerful candlestick formation. Now, if there ever was a better textbook example of this phenomenon than what we can observe with the weekly action of the S&P500, please let me know.
A hanging man it was.



Now, just waiting for the FOMC.
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Friday 24 April 2009

Well, just a last one...

All the intelligence and talent in the world can't make a singer. The voice is a wild thing. It can't be bred in captivity. It is a sport, like the silver fox. It happens.
(Willa Cather)

Yesterday we mentioned the gold vectors ETF (ticker: GDX). Yes, this thing is flying...
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Weekend is coming

Our most favorite newspaper is without any doubt the Irish Times. They are generous, bright and always to the Irish point. So I was delighted to discover that their favorite blogs correspond with mine. More or less. Here’s a list: calculatedriskblog, ftalphaville.ft, irisheconomy.ie, tradersnarrative, traderfeed.blogspot, tradermike.net, baselinescenario, nakedcapitalism, ritholz, clusterstock and bespokeinvest.typepad

More are out in the blogosphere, but with these favorites of Proinsias O’Mahony we can learn already a lot about the markets.
Now, before we close the books for this week, I wish you all a smashing weekend. Let's go down to the pub. Time to sing and admire the perfect sea.
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Here they are again: Goldman Sachs

One of the biggest players in program trading is Goldman Sachs. O yes… The trades this Wall Street commercial bank is executing for his own account are 5 times larger than what’s done for customer and agencies.
This is the link to reach the page where the activity on the NYSE is monitored.
The extraordinary activity of GS is the reason that the rally survives for the moment.




And by the way: look at what happened in the tail of yesterdays’ session. Is this normal?


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The gap between GAAP and IFRS

No c®oo©k is cooking the same dish in the same way. So if we talk about European and US banks in cooking up their books we have to realize that IFRS and GAAP are not producing the same figures. We have to adjust before we can compare.
As an example we take from a report from Deutsche Bank a very good picture concerning the ‘difference’ of the value of total assets under IFRS (gross exposures) and GAAP (derivatives are represented at their net values).
We observe that IFRS is overstating the leverage compared to GAAP accounting.


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Thursday 23 April 2009

Is this rally coming to an end?

Emerging markets and China were the leaders for the rally of the last 6 weeks. But this seems to come to a halt for the moment. The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (ticker: FXI) is not climbing anymore.


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Is the magic gone?

Look out for the financials. On our bullish percent index chart of the 10 S&P500 sectors we mention that the financial sector took a dive during the most recent sessions.

Atention is needed here.

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Gold on the move

The gold price is moving again. Going higher. It goes like clockwork. Until now, we never revisited the 823 USD some were predicting.

Also the Market Vectors Gold Miners (ticker: GDX) seems to move higher on our 60-minutes renko charts. Is a break-out in the making?


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Wirtschaftwissenschaft - German style

A German soap. We learn that Volkswagen is considering a bid for Porsche’s automotive business. While Porsche still tries to seize VW, an operation which started three and a half years ago. What to say about all those hedge funds which lost billions a couple of months ago with the squeeze of the year propelling prices of VW to 900 EUR.
They always surprise is....
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Wednesday 22 April 2009

Dr Copper

The price of copper is going higher. Day after day.
We tried to find some couple of answers on the question ‘why’.
The China factor cannot be discarded.
In the meant time remains the rally on our renko chart intact.




As a byproduct we mention that the Chile Fund - a big copper producer - is doing fine too, but not booming,. Although we have to mention that the shares making up this fund are not that very liquid.




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Icarus

As a reminder how fragile biotech stocks can act, we show a picture of Kendle International. Which was halved yesterday after the company announced that it will not meet analyst expectations for the first quarter of 2009.
From Reuters:

Shares of Kendle International Inc (KNDL) fell as much as 61 percent to a four-year low on Tuesday, a day after the provider of clinical development services to biopharmaceutical firms said it would miss analyst expectations for the first quarter. In a regulatory filing, Kendle said its cancellation rate in the first quarter was more than 45 percent, compared with a forecast of 18 percent.

Also colleagues ICON (ticker: ICLR) and Parexel International (ticker: PRXL) were beaten down.


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Forget about gold...

Is China buying copper like crazy?
From the UK Telegraph last week:

China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) has instead been buying copper and other industrial metals over recent months on a scale that appears to go beyond the usual rebuilding of stocks for commercial reasons.
Nobu Su, head of Taiwan's TMT group, which ships commodities to China, said Beijing is trying to extricate itself from dollar dependency as fast as it can.
“China has woken up. The West is a black hole with all this money being printed. The Chinese are buying raw materials because it is a much better way to use their $1.9 trillion of reserves. They get ten times the impact, and can cover their infrastructure for 50 years."


Everybody thought China would switch to gold. Instead they seem to buy industrial metals. Another thing is happening.
This message comes from Bloomberg:

China’s leaders... are making it easier for trading partners and consumers to do business in yuan.
The People’s Bank of China has agreed to provide 650 billion yuan ($95 billion) to Argentina, Belarus, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea through so-called currency swaps. More such arrangements are being planned so importers can avoid paying for Chinese goods with dollars, the central bank said. In Hong Kong, which has pegged the currency to its U.S. counterpart since 1983, stores from Park’n Shop supermarkets to jewelers accept yuan.

Why is that?
We all know that the Chinese want to get rid with at least a part of their dollars and they are looking for ways to diversify their currency reserves. In exchanging swap lines they try to liquefy the yuan. Until now it’s almost impossible to buy and to sell yuan in the same way you buy or sell euros.
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Tuesday 21 April 2009

What's brewing?

We read something interesting.
It was coming from tiny Belgium where the Minister of Foreign Affairs basically said in a speech to his diplomats that a new era is coming. A new Bretton-Woods is prepared to enter centre stage in a couple of months.
Maybe he’s right.
Look around. Political activity is very high. Obama is travelling like mad all over this planet, and one can say that this is only normal after his inauguration, the reception is always very warm and enthusiastic.
And I remember that the G20 produced something very tangible. Not a general vague declaration, but something as a blacklist of countries which are messing up with their taxes.
Very strange indeed.

Yes, maybe something big is coming up.
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Bear - part 3

More short ETF’s are pointing to a (temporary?) change.
The Financial Bear 3X Shares (ticker: FAZ) is gaining momentum.
On the 60 minutes renko chart we see that the trend – CCI followed by the SAR – is turning positive.

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Bear - part 2

Something else we want to look at.
Interest rates and debt.
As snake eating its own tail, the FED creates paper and buys it up later in order to keep rates low. This is working fine as long as you can create 10 units and you only needs 2 units to reach this goal.
And nobody starts to do foolish things.
The rise of ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF (ticker: TBT) shows that the price of paper is declining. And that means that long term rates are rising.

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Bear - part 1

Is it starting?
Is the rally over?
There are fascinating
articles in the blogosphere depicting what’s happening.
Once more Goldman Sachs is leading the troops.
It’s clear this rally can not run much longer.
So we’re looking to short ETF’s again.
Look to the daily renko chart of ProShares Ultrashort Real Estate. On the daily chart everything is ok: this double short ETF is still loosing value:

However: the 60-minute ETF is telling another story. The trend is changing.
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Monday 20 April 2009

Worrying

The BIS published a paper on leverage and procyclicality. The graph of household indebtedness, although open for a lengthy discussion, gives an illustration of what is coming. Debt is climbing and/or assets are shrinking..
Especially in the States. And in a lesser extent also for the UK.


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Bear and bull


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Don't bank on banks

Spring time. But it is not so clear if our Irish banks are participating. Some banks on the continent doubled in value last couple of weeks. And also in the States. But no joy on the Emerald Isle as our financial institutions are decimated and crippled..
Fromm Egan Jones, the rating agency (what’s in a name, these days) we received some comments on the resurrection of the Citi share price.

Accounting and government magic - the recasting of FASB157 enables financial institutions to defer the recognition of losses with the result that C's March trading profits swung from a $6.8B loss to a $3.8B gain. Another item worth reviewing is the decline in interest expense from $16.5B last year to $7.7B this year.
Nonetheless, much more equity capital is needed. Beyond the conversion of preferred to common, watch the form of any additional capital. The Fed and Treas. have guaranteed $306B of C's assets, have injected $45B in preferred and converted to common leaving few additional options. The problem is that C has $2T of assets ($3+T including off balance sheet assets) whose values are depressed by 10% to 20%. C needs to be watched.


We see a developing trend which is worrying: liquidity seems to dampen once again. Apparently funds are deleveraging when they can. So every uptick serves them well. But while doing this they are reducing the liquidity in the market.
Fewer dollars are available to fund the liability side.
A stronger dollar is the result. This is not boding well.
Now, the higher the market goes, the more shorts are trapped.
It seems like a remake of the past-Lehman days is in the making.

Be careful, gals and lads.
This remarkable chart was published by Tim Knight.
Remarkable in the sense that the Russell 2000 seems to do exact the same thing as this index did a couple of months ago.
Exact the same gains in exact the same time span.

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Friday 17 April 2009

Now you see them, but soon they disappear

This is going to happen to twelve major brands: they will disappear in the near future. At least that’s what Douglas A. McIntyre of 247 Wall Street is thinking.
Here are their names:
AvisBudget (CAR), Borders (BGP), Crocs (CROX), Saturn, Esquire Magazine, GAP (ticker: GAP), Architectural Digest Magazine, Chrysler, Eddie Bauer (EBH), Palm (PALM), AIG (AIG), large US airline carriers.
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20 Irish top economists - wowowow

I was not aware about this. I mean, the fact that Ireland has 20 top economists. But yes. And even more: they published a letter in the Irish Times, stating that the only way to clean up our local banking system is through nationalization.
We read:

We consider that nationalization will better protect taxpayers’ interests, produce a more efficient and longer lasting solution to our banking problems, be more transparent in relation to pricing of distressed assets, and be far more likely to produce a banking system free from the toxic reputation that our current financial institutions have deservedly earned.

Now, these economists are keen on the fact that the crisis has been good for the prestige of Irish academics on the first place. In the Tiger years nobody was seriously warning for the impending trouble, except the chief economist of AIB Bank –as far as I can remember -. Yes, there was a housing bubble. A big one. But this bubble was accepted by everyone. Everybody was cheering with our former Taoiseach (dirty) Bertie. Denying the inevitable.
And suddenly we find the same people back at the other side, producing gloom and doom.

Oh my…
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The exhausted bull

This chart is bringing together the bullish percent index of the S&P500 and some of the 10 sectors making up this index. We can see financials, energy, health and others. It’s worth to note that financials (green) and discretionary consumers (blue) are leading the pack.
We do not forget that these were the two heaviest shorted sectors a couple of weeks ago.

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USO and FAZ

Will the oil price rebound anytime soon?
As far as the oil ETF is concerned (ticker: USO) not. The modest rebound of the last week is not met with stronger volume.
On the contrary.



The renko chart of the Financial Bear 3x Shares ETF (ticker FAZ) seems to be bottoming. Does this mean that good news from banks have lesser and lesser impact?
Now, in recent days more than 125 million shares were traded in the FAZ. That’s a lot. That’s more than the combined trading volume of Microsoft, Intel, IBM and Exxon combined. Without any doubt this fact is influencing the prices of the underlying bank names, because this ETF is constructed as a derivative in order to generate the three times leverage.
It’s clear that a lot of trading power is hooking up here.


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Thursday 16 April 2009

Dr Copper

An interesting thought about copper. Why is the price rising, while economic activity is subdued?
There are 2 main things causing the price rally
* lack of supply in the scrap market forcing copper users to turn to global exchanges - bearish.
* no-where to store the by-product of refined copper (sulphuric acid) which is difficult to store/dangerous to transport. Usually chem companies and fertilizers buy the by-product but they're demand levels have plummeted because they're not selling as much product - so storage tanks are full and some copper mines have to shut down simply because they've run out of space to store sulphuric acid.

Normally copper is seen as a driver for economic growth and higher prices mean a better economy. This time, it’s the lack of demand driving prices up.
Oh irony…
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The missing month and Goldman

In the good old days, investment banks of the like of Lehman, closed their books at the end of November. They don’t longer exist. The survivors turned themselves in commercial banks, normally celebrating their year-end at 31st of December.
Now, this is funny: Goldman Sachs reported for the first quarter of 2009. From January till the end of March.
The question is: where went December?

From the FT:
Floyd Norris of the New York Times noted that Goldman Sachs used a more prosaic trick having nothing to do with mark to market accounting - the company moved its fiscal year up a month and simply left out its losses from December, which is now known as an ‘orphan month’. Is the rule that says a year has twelve months also open to subjective judgment?

Now, December is not completely missing.
Page 10 of the bank’s 2009 Q1
earnings statement is pretty clear. The net loss in December was £780m after writedowns including some $1bn on credit activities and $625m in commercial mortgage loans and securities (Footnote 19).


However, how would the first quarter profit have been if GS had included December?
Sure, everything you have to know is there, but did you knew?

Of course also JP Morgan is beating the analysts’ expectations.
And so will GE and Google, later this week.
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Wednesday 15 April 2009

More about Goldman

Well done Goldman. Shorting AIG when the price imploded while this was your most important counterparty on the other hand.
Enclosed you find
a link to the transcript of the Goldman Sachs Q&A they held with analysts yesterday.
Worth to notice is the following:
Question: Thanks, and cleanup on the exposures David. Could you provide us a where marks and exposure levels stood in March versus November for the hot spots, commercial real estate, leveraged loans, residential real estate, ALT-A, subprime.
David Viniar: Let me give you a couple of those and anything I don't answer, ask he into if I haven't given what you need. The commercial real state, we had at the end of the quarter market value of-- round numbers I'll give you, about $8.5 billion and about $1.5 billion was CMBS security sots real loan portion was about $7 billion and our average mark across there was something in the high 50s. The residential real estate for us, we just have a trading position at this point. We have nonagency residential real estateWe have roughly $4 billion split equal, roughly equally between prime ALT-A and subprime, and that is really a trading position. You know, it's going to go up or down over the course of any quarter at this point. I wouldn't call them legacy. Our leveraged loans, from the $52 billion of legacy loans that we had at the end of the third quarter of '07 which is when the credit crisis really hit, we're down to a market value of about $2.3 billion. So the exposure there is pretty minimal this point and the average mark on that 2.3 billion is in the range of 50 cents.


Please can somebody explain to me, why the US Treasury/FDIC wants to pay between 80 and 88 cts on the dollar when these structures are priced at 50 cts in the books.
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Big in Japan

The Japanese government launched a record stimulus package totaling 56.8 trillion Yen. Or 56.000.000.000.000. This amount represents 11.2% of the Japanese GDP. The three centerpieces of the direct stimulus part are:
- measures to boost consumer electronics/automobile replacement
- a gift tax cut aimed at stimulating housing investment
- public works projects
Now, we wonder: this money is coming out of nowhere and is injected in the economy. As long as there is no velocity of money in Japan (gone since the early nineties) this kind of action will not cause inflation. But at the same time you have to put it somewhere on your balance.
When will this liability be gone?
2509?
This world is experimenting with paper currencies on a scale never seen before.
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Tuesday 14 April 2009

FAZzzzzzz

Three weeks ago FAZ (the bearish leveraged financials ETF) was worth more than 100 USD.
Now it'ss under 10 USD.
Things can change fast these days.
Let’s party with the crowd.
And keep an eye on the huge volume. Taking profits or new short sales?



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Budget of Hell

In the Telegraph we read an article of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard titled: Ireland is ECB’s sacrifical lamb to satisfy German inflation demands.
Of course, it’s Easter.
What’s happening on the Emerald shores?
We can bring it down to the Budget of Hell which was released last week.
The core of everything is the following

It (Ireland) was betrayed again by the European Central Bank, which opened the monetary floodgates early this decade to nurse Germany through a slump, holding rates at 2pc until late 2005, despite flagrant breach of the ECB's own M3 money targets. Fast-growing Ireland and the Club Med over-heaters were sacrificed to help Germany. They were left to cope with credit bubbles as best they could.
Ireland struggled. Construction reached 21pc of GDP – a world record? – compared with 11pc in the US at the peak


Ireland risks a deflationary slide into bankruptcy. Especially in the effort to swallow 90 bln euro of toxic bank debts – or 50% of their GDP.

Ok, this is only one view.
We’ll enjoy the springtime here at the sea side and hope that everything will work out fine. The Celtic tiger is only wounded. Not death.
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The Goldman boys are doing it again

Suddenly all Americans banks – amongst others – start posting good first quarter figures. After Wells Fargo pre-announced last week, it’s now up to Goldman Sachs to drum good news: a 1.7 bln USD profit, 4.7 bln USD set aside for salaries and bonuses and a 5 bln USD equity offering to free itself from the TARP. With 12 trln handouts fro the US government there cannot be a problem to finds money for this placement in order to let the bonuses flow again.
I suppose that’s the reason why GS prefers to pay back the government first instead of Warren Buffet.

You have to love these
Goldman Sachs boys
On those quarterly results – this is the press release from Well Fargo:

“Business momentum in the quarter reflected strength in our traditional banking businesses, strong capital markets activities, and exceptionally strong mortgage banking results — $100 billion in mortgage originations, with a 41 percent increase in the unclosed application pipeline to $100 billion at quarter end, an indication of strong second quarter mortgage originations,” said Chief Financial Officer Howard Atkins.

Mortgage originations… thank you, US government.
But there is more. Since January 1, 2009 new accounting rules are in force. This is rule FAS 160 which allows certain liabilities to shift to the asset side of the balance as non-cash transactions via paid-in capital, thereby going into the earnings accounts and boosting reported equity.

There you have it: the government is handing out capital injections and changes the fair value accounting rules and suddenly the visibility on the bank books is reduced to something close to zero.
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Tuesday 7 April 2009

Travelling

From Wednesday till next Monday this blog will not be updated as Easter has brought an invitation to visit old friends and unknown cities.

No pubbing these coming days. Sphere: Related Content

Is the rally fading?

Yesterday we stated that the rally on the exchanges is nearing a top. Here are some pictures to illustrate this thought.We have:
1. the number of shares above their 50-day average
2. the bullish percent index on the NYSE
3. De McClellan summation index
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Dr Copper has a surprise

Copper is still going strong.
The futures contract with delivery on July 2009 is climbing.
Who is buying? The Chinese? The construction industry? Or a short squeeze?

We couple this phenomenon to Freeport McMoran. The tandem is still intact.

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Observations

The Bank of England announces swap arrangement to provide liquidity to US Federal Reserve. That was announced yesterday. Strange move, as everybody thought that the almighty FED was saving the world. Apparently they need every penny they can find.
The official explanation: the FED lends these currencies to US-based banks to meet foreign currency needs.
Is this news causing the dollar short squeeze, this morning in Europe?
Another funny thing: the trailing multiple on reported S&P500 earnings is now 100x times. I remember that even on the top of the tech-boom the NASDAQ multiple was only the half. The implosion of profits is causing much more havoc than everybody want to know.
But the bulls are out. The AAII survey shows that the share of bullish investors expanded from 18.9% to 42.7%. We were here before. Right: in January. When the other bull market faded away.
De US Securities Exchange Commission is considering four proposals to restrict short selling. The restoration of the uptick rule is one of them. Others are the ‘bid test’ and a ‘circuit breaker’.
And then there is Larry Summers. The man attires a lot of attention these days, especially his paychecks.
We always liked the guys at
www.contraryinvestor.com. They show you charts which tell you more than 1000 words.
Look to this:





Jesse writes:
The Obama Administration is scrambling to obtain relief from Europe and Asia, getting them to inflate their own currencies through 'stimulus,' in order to continue to hide the unalterable truth - the US must partially default on its debt as expressed in the dollar.
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Monday 6 April 2009

A top in the making?

Is a top in the making?
The answer is ‘yes’. We observe that major indices are overbought. Take indicators as stocks above their 50 day moving average or bullish percent indices: they are all trading in overbought territory.
Now, a top doesn’t mean necessarily a correction. Another possibility to work off this overbought condition is through consolidation and some sideways trading.
Professionals will try to bring indices further up through sector rotation.
Don’t forget: short interest is not declining for the moment, so rotation combined with earning reports will suit the bears so they can prepare another assault later on this quarter.
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A change of rules for Europe?

He’s back, my favorite accountant of Dublin. Good ol’ Charlie McGreevy, the Internal Market Commissioner of the EU calls upon the International Accounting Standards Board to consider a change of one of its rules to align with the reform of its US equivalent allowing European banks to have more flexibility in valuing toxic assets.
As said before: even this will boost bank earnings and improve the capital levels, it doesn’t take away the roots of the problem: funding this stuff and the liquidity of these markets.
As we stumble deeper and deeper in the economic abyss, banks want to get rid of this toxic waste because repayment at maturity becomes more and more a problem. But they can’t, coz’ there is no market left.
Now, abolishing M2M makes sense if you have a central bank doped with quantitative easing. Not the ECB…
Hey Charlie, dear, what about IAS 39 you once favored, where fair value was the sacred cow?
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Kimco

People are angry.
Here are the facts: A shopping mall investment trust – Kimco – has come out with a 700 million USD rights issue. In order to pay down debt. Which is an honorable goal.
Now, at the same time an analyst with Merrill Lynch upgraded his advice from ‘underperform’ to ‘buy’.
At the same time we learn that Merrill is also the lead underwriter of this issue.
Is this insider trading?
A conflict of interests?
Since Saturday the blogosphere is filled with rage. Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, Naked Capitalism and others are protesting.
This is an old conflict. In order to restore confidence with the public the separation of research and commercial activities –promised for along time – would offer a solution.
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Friday 3 April 2009

And then... coming home


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And we will all go down together...

My favorite B.J. song;
Nothing is as precious as government debt, because it belongs to all of us.
And the good news is: more is coming.

The IMF published a table were they made projections how this debt will evolve in the coming years. The figures have to be read as debt as a % of GDP. I don’t think the guys on the photo should smile like this with this kind of future developments


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Happy faces

The G20 gathering is over. Happy faces everywhere. Yes, London has still a great nightlife. Especially for VIPs.
Another handout of 1000 bln USD is promised. 750 bln USD goes to the IMF. Hey, they are back in business now. The Americanization of this world can restart.




As usual this kind of meetings produces nothing but promises and is always short on commitments.

Time to go for a pint in the pub... There is a lot to discuss. Before the singing is starting on the beautiful eve in spring
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FASB: time of death 2 april 2009 14.48



US payrolls fall with 663.000 in March and the unemployment rate is rising to 8.5%.
Isn’t there any spark of hope?
Yes. Hat tip to Chris






But markets paid more attention to the FASB 3 against 2 vote to suspend mark-to-market. The nice thing is that this will give some temporary relief. But no way the difficulties will walk away. It repairs something at the valuation side, but nothing changed at the liquidity side. Problems remain: you have to continue stuff that you cannot sell and that’s what you want because the rot is creeping up, every day a little bit. If you have to hold this toxic waste until maturity then the chances grow everyday that the paper will default. Now, is that what you want as a bank?



No…



The bull case is that although accounting changes should not alter the economic reality, this change will change banks’ behavior through less forced selling and less need to raise new capital to bolster their capital ratios. The bear case is that if banks value their assets and liabilities with no reference to market prices, it becomes impossible for external investors to understand exactly what the value of banks’ balance sheets really are and risks undermining market confidence rather than bolstering it.


From Paddypower we have this photograph.



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Thursday 2 April 2009

The New Normal

In the New Normal world the economic health of economic agents is measured by CDS-levels (credit derivatives swaps). As governments are taking up more and more corporate risks on their balance sheets, it’s important to keep track with sovereign CDS levels.
Not that much decent information is available concerning this topic. Credit Derivatives Research has launched a government risk index which aggregates the sovereign risk of the G7 nations.
Let’s strip the US of that AAA rating.



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G20 and then some...

The ECB is lowering their benchmark rate with 25bp tot 1.25%. Everybody was awaiting 50 bp. Hey, Europe seems to be in a better shape than everybody is assuming. This crisis is between the ears, of course.
Elsewhere we will hear more today of the FASB’s amendment to mark-to-market accounting rules, set to be approved today.



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The next disaster - but not yet

The vultures circling around commercial real estate deals are becoming more and more numerous.
The sale of the John Hanccock Tower to Normandy serves as a striking example of what’s going on. This property was appraised for 1.3 bln USD in 2006 after being traded at 935 mln USD in 2003. In the foreclosure auction two days ago this marquee building in Boston changed hands for 660 mln USD.
Mall owners have to renew a lot of loans this year while malls get emptier by the day. It’s obvious that firms are going to default soon.
Build on mountains of debt, outlets like Macerich (ticker: MAC), Simon Property Group (ticker: SPG), Taubman Centers (ticker: TCO) and Developers Diversified Realty (ticker: DDR) to name a few, are all doomed if a white knight is not passing by soon.
A REIT which can suit one who wants to short is SRS.
The rot is everywhere.



Let’s name them: Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank have submitted proposals to the Irish government to set up their version of good bank – bad bank. They put 35 bln € forward as the total figure. What’s going to the bad bank? Mainly real estate/development loans which have crippled the Irish banks. No more chicken wings and Guinness in the Harbor Master the coming months, lads.
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Rallytime everywhere

China is on the move.
The Shanghai Composite Index rallied since the start of this year 34.80% Bloomberg is reporting. Remarkable: commodity stocks are driving in the fast lane.
Zijin Mining Group en Jiangxi Copper, China Shenhua Energy Co, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group and China Coal Energy are all rising fast.
In the mean time the Chinese are re-arranging their currency reserves. Their dollar assets went down from 83% a couple of months ago to 64%. But they have still 740 bln USD of US Treasuries.


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Wednesday 1 April 2009

Missin' some fun

Protests in London.
And that’s the most important financial news everybody is concentrating on.
The First Human Resources Head, who is also CFO of the US, is in London too. Drives around in an Opel Corsa.
The only absent drop-out is me.
But not to worry. My local will broadcast the event all night, so time enough to look around for any old acquaintances.
Hold on, what do we read?
Belgium’s Solvay
was in focus on Tuesday amid talk that a large European drugmaker was eyeing a possible bid for the chemicals and pharmaceuticals group. One suggestion was that a larger peer might try to prise away Solvay’s drug business. Any deal would hinge on Solvac, a holding company which owns 30% of Solvay’s shares and mostly acts on behalf of relatives of Ernest Solvay, the company’s founder. It is thought that Solvac would oppose any takeover.
Love those Belgians
They have to play the Serbs tonight.
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It's not over

The Case Shiller 20 City Home Price Index fell yesterday 18.97% y/y. Now, this decline was the biggest as far as this cycle is concerned. Biggest drop was in Phoenix, Vegas, San Fra, Miami and flashy LA.
Cheap housing in the US, someone is asking. Cheaper by the day, my dear.



Some figures: US March ISM from 35.8 to 36.3%, US March new orders index from 33.1 to 41.2%.
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Running for the exit

Commercial Real Estate is the next ship to sink. And it’s coming, fast and furious. Banks still try to ditch the hole, but the delinquent loans become so numerous that somehow this thing will implode.
You better close the windows when the trouble starts.
One glance at the ProShares Ultrashort Real Estate ETF (ticker: SRS) with components as Simon Property Group, ProLogis and Vornado Realty Trust will tell you the story
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