Thursday 2 April 2009

The next disaster - but not yet

The vultures circling around commercial real estate deals are becoming more and more numerous.
The sale of the John Hanccock Tower to Normandy serves as a striking example of what’s going on. This property was appraised for 1.3 bln USD in 2006 after being traded at 935 mln USD in 2003. In the foreclosure auction two days ago this marquee building in Boston changed hands for 660 mln USD.
Mall owners have to renew a lot of loans this year while malls get emptier by the day. It’s obvious that firms are going to default soon.
Build on mountains of debt, outlets like Macerich (ticker: MAC), Simon Property Group (ticker: SPG), Taubman Centers (ticker: TCO) and Developers Diversified Realty (ticker: DDR) to name a few, are all doomed if a white knight is not passing by soon.
A REIT which can suit one who wants to short is SRS.
The rot is everywhere.



Let’s name them: Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank have submitted proposals to the Irish government to set up their version of good bank – bad bank. They put 35 bln € forward as the total figure. What’s going to the bad bank? Mainly real estate/development loans which have crippled the Irish banks. No more chicken wings and Guinness in the Harbor Master the coming months, lads.
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