Showing posts with label downgrade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label downgrade. Show all posts

Monday, 24 August 2009

Downgrade

A downgrade doesn't have to hurt a stock.
First this:
The market for the hybrid debt of British banks was rather roiled last week
First there was news that Northern Rock would be deferring payment of its suboordinated debt coupons. Then then there was a mass-downgrade of the hybrid debt of banks including Lloyds and RBS, from ratings agency Fitch. In short, things are happening in the market — and they haven’t been all that good.
As a reminder, hybrid, or suboordinated debt, has characteristics of both equity and debt, and forms an important part of banks’ capital cushions.
On Tuesday, Northern Rock deferred coupon payments on some of its hybrid debt in an effort to conserve its capital base, which has fallen below minimum requirements since the bank was nationalised in 2008. The bond payments can legally be deferred without counting as a default — something which enables them to qualify as regulatory capital in the first place.
The thinking behind Fitch’s Thursday downgrade of RBS’ and Lloyds’ hybrid debt, meanwhile, is that there’s an increased risk of other such coupon deferrals after the European Commission introduced the concept of “burden-sharing” for bond - and shareholders. That’s a nice way of saying that bondholders will have to share some of the pain involved in bank bailouts — the lack of which formed a prime criticism of bank bailouts earlier this year.

Please note that not only Britsih Banks are involved in the Fitch action also other European banks got a letter where their hybrid debt was downgraded.
However, on the Belgian stock exchange is KBC (bank) rising another 5% today.
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Wednesday, 27 May 2009

Is the UK a test-case for the US?

From the Financial Times

The S&P decision to downgrade its outlook for British sovereign debt from “stable” to “negative” should be a wake-up call for the US Congress and administration. The federal debt was equivalent to 41 per cent of GDP at the end of 2008; the Congressional Budget Office projects it will increase to 82 per cent of GDP in 10 years. With no change in policy, it could hit 100 per cent of GDP in just another five years. “A government debt burden of that [100 per cent] level, if sustained, would in S&P view be incompatible with a triple A rating,” as the risk rating agency stated last week.To understand the size of the risk, take a look at the numbers that S&P considers. The deficit in 2019 is expected by the CBO to be $1,200bn (€859bn, £754bn). Income tax revenues are expected to be about $2,000bn that year, so a permanent 60 per cent across-the-board tax increase would be required to balance the budget. Clearly this will not and should not happen. So how else can debt service payments be brought down as a share of GDP? Inflation will do it. But how much? To bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to the same level as at the end of 2008 would take a doubling of prices."

Are we going to inflation?
Not yet.

The TIP ETF is barely moving.


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