Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts

Thursday, 9 July 2009

Do banks ever learn their lesson

If someone thought that the game changed, think again.
This comes from Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert:

Morgan Stanley plans to repackage a downgraded collateralized debt obligation backed by leveraged loans into new securities with AAA ratings in the first transaction of its kind, said two people familiar with the sale.
Morgan Stanley is selling $87.1 million of securities that it expects to receive top AAA ratings and $42.9 million of notes graded Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, according to marketing documents obtained by Bloomberg News. The bonds were created from Greywolf CLO I Ltd., a CDO arranged in January 2007 by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and managed by Greywolf Capital Management LP, an investment firm based in Purchase, New York.



Now, Moodys downgraded the Aaa tranche of this CDO with six notches to A3 because its default rate for loans in the Aaa tranche soared to 7 percent. No problem for Morgan Stanley. They managed to repackage this paper throwing in some credit enhancement, collateral, reducing the poorly performing assets, make the equity tranche a little larger and throw in a CDS and hop… the same loan pool gets another Aaa rating.
Everybody is repackaging again. Goldman plans to sell 200 mln USD of repackaged commercial mortgage-backed paper soon.
And attention folks: this is all approved by your local regulators.

On the other hand: somewhere there is still demand for this kind of paper. Maybe it’s your own pension fund buying...
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Thursday, 14 May 2009

One egg for the banker a day...

Oh dear, this was shocking. I mean throwing eggs to Dermot Gleeson, our AIB Chairman, yesterday as everything was his fault. Dermot was on his way to the shareholders meeting to approve the 3.5 bln EUR injection offered by the government. I know, shares have lost 90% of their value. But that’s the risk you have with shares, now isn’t it? Even more: why didn’t we sell in the slide to under 1 EUR? Our rabbit-in-the-headlights reflex?
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Wednesday, 11 February 2009

Caterpillar

The Caterpillar deal revisited.
This is not exactly what we were looking for, but if indexes lose 4%, you only have a small chance to escape with a blue chip.
Yep, so down went the price of CAT.
Look to the renko-chart. The positive trend is abolished. The CCI is retreating.
Now, our stop is the level of the SAR: 30,65 USD. If hit, we‘re out.

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Tuesday, 10 February 2009

Confessions

I confess.
Yesterday I published a renko chart of Caterpillar (ticker: CAT). These charts have only an informal character. ‘To show how…’
Normally I never invest and I never get involved.
This is no longer the case.
Yesterday I bought 1 call CAT march 2009 35 USD at 1.70 USD.
So there it is, in the open.
It’s not a fortune, but it is everything I have in my TD Ameritrade account.
Now everybody knows.
Please don’t tell my mom.
For the sake of this blog, we’ll follow up the developments and adventures of CAT in the next couple of days.
So far, so good.
The renko trend is not broken, though the close is not very reassuring.
Time to suffer…
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