Thursday 26 February 2009

Stampede

Everything is drama. Especially now analysts learn how to be bearish. Short recommendations from newsletter writers can be found everywhere and investors cannot wait piling on short positions.
A stampede of the bears.
In good times we learn: buy the dip. In bad times it should be: sell the rally.
But there is no rally coming.
The only thing we hear are the drums whispering: sell-sell-sell.
If we look to the monthly chart of the S&P500 wit a 20 period moving average added, we observe that the S&P500 is more than 50% below it’s 20 month moving average.
We just know there will be a return to the mean, as an invisible rubber band has now stretched this index further to the downside than ever before.
What is especially tricky with this bear market is the fact that there were no entry points for going short.


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