Thursday 7 May 2009

Tonight...

Tonight‘s the night…
At last the stress test results will be published.
A lot of rumors are swirling around.
From the WSJ:

"The results of the government's stress tests of the largest 19 U.S. banks continued to trickle out, highlighting the burgeoning gaps between the industry's strong and weak players. Among the institutions that have been instructed by the Federal Reserve to raise more capital are Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, GMAC, State Street, Bank of America, Citigroup and Regions Financial. Banks that don't need fatter capital cushions include Capital One, American Express, Bank of New York Mellon, Goldman Sachs, MetLife and J.P. Morgan Chase."

And then the WashPost is telling us that even BoA might not need new capital. Other sources suggest 34 bln USD.

Bloomberg is offering following nuggets:

"Banks that need to raise capital under the government’s stress tests will have until June 8 to develop a plan and until Nov. 9 to implement it, U.S. bank regulators said today. The capital buffer for each bank holding company "is sized to achieve a Tier 1 risk‐based ratio of at least 6 percent and a Tier 1 common risk‐based ratio of at least 4 percent at the end of 2010, under a more adverse macroeconomic scenario than is currently anticipated," the regulators said in a joint release. The government will release results of the so-called stress tests Thursday at 5 p.m. Washington time."

Suppose for one second that the results are better than expected – they will be – and this media circus was deliberately organized in order to have another stock rally, what will it be? A 'sell the news' reaction?
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