Thursday 3 September 2009

Natural Gas

Good to know: the UNG ETF is not the best way to play the eventual price rebound in natural gas. There is some serious contango in the market (so much so that the current price of $2.73 for Oct is just under 60% of the Dec contract at $4.69). Prior to current month expiry, the UNG ETF “rolls” the contract to the next month. When this roll takes place, they sell the current month at say $2.73 and buy the next month at $3.89 (current price of Nov). When they do this the price of UNG does not change as it ends up buying a higher priced contract for which to trade around (they try and match the percentages of the change in price). Effectively, your cost base gets eaten away by the contango and you lose out on the current contract price. The only way it makes sense to buy an ETF like this is when there is backwardation in the market of the underlying commodity.
Natural Gas is poised for a huge move...
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