Only two sectors offer some more room for their stocks to catch up with this trend.
And then there is this:
Showing posts with label overbought. Show all posts
Showing posts with label overbought. Show all posts
Friday, 28 August 2009
The 50-day moving average
Most stocks are above their 50-day moving average.
Only two sectors offer some more room for their stocks to catch up with this trend.
And then there is this: 
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Only two sectors offer some more room for their stocks to catch up with this trend.
And then there is this:
Tuesday, 11 August 2009
More: overbought
According to report on Bloomberg today, traders are now betting that the rally is about to come to a screeching halt…
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are increasing bets that the steepest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the 1930s won’t survive September, historically the worst month for U.S. equities.
Traders were betting the VIX, a gauge of expected stock swings, would increase 13 percent in the next five weeks, according to futures prices at the end of last week compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest spread since August 2008, before the S&P 500 suffered the steepest two-month plunge in 21 years. The indexes have moved in the opposite direction 81 percent of the time over the past five years, Bloomberg data show.
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Options traders are increasing bets that the steepest rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since the 1930s won’t survive September, historically the worst month for U.S. equities.
Traders were betting the VIX, a gauge of expected stock swings, would increase 13 percent in the next five weeks, according to futures prices at the end of last week compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the biggest spread since August 2008, before the S&P 500 suffered the steepest two-month plunge in 21 years. The indexes have moved in the opposite direction 81 percent of the time over the past five years, Bloomberg data show.
Overbought - overbought - overbought
The S&P500 Bullish Percent Index (A popular market breadth indicator that is calculated by dividing the number of stocks in a given group (an exchange, an industry, etc.) that are currently trading with Point and Figure buy signals, by the total number of stocks in that group. BPI can be used to determine overbought/oversold conditions and can generate buy/sell signals. It is important to note that the Bullish Percent Index is not something that can be applied to a single stock but rather an index that is calculated for a group of stocks) stands at 80% or the highest level since February 2007. Above 70% this indicator is telling us that the markets are overbought.
Monday, 27 July 2009
Overbought
We have an interesting chart from Bespoke Invest where the current levels of the different sectors of the S&P500 are highlighted. OS and OB stands for overbought levels and oversold levels. The only sector not overbought, following the monster rally of july 10th is the energy sector. Even more: 6 out of 10 sectors are currently trading at or near extreme overbought levels.
So this cannot go on for a long time.
So this cannot go on for a long time.
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Tuesday, 9 June 2009
Overbought
It’s simple and still so difficult. Trying to nail down the ETF’s which are most overbought and short them.
As a measure the 50-day moving average is taken. And this is the observation:
The Russian stock market ETF is the most overbought, trading 36.17% above its 50-day. India ranks second at 35.72%, followed by the steel ETF (SLX), emerging market Europe (GUR), metals and mining (XME), and Singapore. The majority of the ETFs on this list track countries.
As a measure the 50-day moving average is taken. And this is the observation:
The Russian stock market ETF is the most overbought, trading 36.17% above its 50-day. India ranks second at 35.72%, followed by the steel ETF (SLX), emerging market Europe (GUR), metals and mining (XME), and Singapore. The majority of the ETFs on this list track countries.
Thanks to Bespoke Invest:
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Monday, 6 April 2009
A top in the making?
Is a top in the making?
The answer is ‘yes’. We observe that major indices are overbought. Take indicators as stocks above their 50 day moving average or bullish percent indices: they are all trading in overbought territory.
Now, a top doesn’t mean necessarily a correction. Another possibility to work off this overbought condition is through consolidation and some sideways trading.
Professionals will try to bring indices further up through sector rotation.
Don’t forget: short interest is not declining for the moment, so rotation combined with earning reports will suit the bears so they can prepare another assault later on this quarter.
The answer is ‘yes’. We observe that major indices are overbought. Take indicators as stocks above their 50 day moving average or bullish percent indices: they are all trading in overbought territory.
Now, a top doesn’t mean necessarily a correction. Another possibility to work off this overbought condition is through consolidation and some sideways trading.
Professionals will try to bring indices further up through sector rotation.
Don’t forget: short interest is not declining for the moment, so rotation combined with earning reports will suit the bears so they can prepare another assault later on this quarter.
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