Tuesday 16 June 2009

Themes

Theme 1.
China = commodities. All these shipping movements are caused by inventory building by the Chinese. But production is still going down compared with the figures from the same month last year.
Ship owners are now charging 58.000 USD a day for large bulk carrier freighters but just 24.000 USD for next year and 2011.

Theme 2.
Indices are moving at the start of a week. Not at he end. This week is an expiration week. And the opening gambit was down.
Technically we’re moving in a very narrow range for weeks now. The reflation trade is a very crowded trade as is the ‘dollar is weak, bonds are weak’ trade.

Theme 3
This week Research in Motion is reporting results. RIMM, AAPL, GOOG and the semiconductors ETF SMH are holding up the NASDAQ. If they go, the NASDAQ will go too.
Not to forget: there was a time you had to be invested in individual names but the market has transformed to ETF/sector dominance.

Theme 5
The inversion of short term LIBOR-rates and short term Treasuries. Normally LIBOR is yielding more than the ‘safest’ investment on this planet. However, this is not the case for the moment as everybody is dumping govvies.
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