Wednesday 14 January 2009

Don't bank on it

It’s Wednesday and there is drama.
Let’s start with banks. Citi is breaking up, as a ship that hit the iceberg. Nice if you are a shareholder. Once the biggest, now humbled jus in an effort to survive. But also elsewhere it’s gloom and doom. Morgan Stanley thinks HSBC need another 20 to 30 bln USD of capital to survive. And forget about the dividend. Royal Bank of Scotland is selling their stake in Bank of China. Barclays is ready to ax 2100 jobs. And Deutsche Bank has his own Madoff or better: a massive profit warning for a fourth quarter loss of 4.8 bln EUR is announced – unaudited – and one of the key drivers are losses in the prop trading department on equity derivatives and credit trading.
Bernanke is in London and called for fresh efforts to clean up the US banking system.
And so on… So even the financial crisis has sailed a little to the background, the mess is far from over.
It’s clear that the financial system, as we knew it, is gone. A couple of markets will not make a come back, destroying a lot of capital in the process.
Read my lips: banks are a mess.
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