Friday, 16 January 2009

General Growth Properties

This is a nice one. General Growth Properties (ticker: GGP). This is a mall operator on his way to oblivion. Soon, thinks Porter Stansberry, one of my favorites. And he has a point here. Or better: several. Commercial Real estate is in dire streets. But for the moment this sector manages to stay afloat. But the situation becomes unsustainable. GGP is an example right of the copy book. In December GGP had debt coming due. Almost 1 bln USD. No way to refinance because the underlying asset – a mall in Vegas – is property nobody wants to touch. But instead of going broke, the passed the payment date and were even able to announce they received an surprising extension from Citigroup to which they own 2.6 bln USD.
Are they saved? Apparently not as they have two dozen other loans coming due later this year. March will be particular difficult because GGP has to cough up more than 2 bln USD.
The problem is clear: tenants are walking away from their leases in droves. And rental income is plunging.

Looking to the renko-chart we see that the price development went negative: the CCI was already announcing a negative stance and is now followed by the SAR flipping above the rate.


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