Monday, 19 January 2009

Margin debt

Where will stocks bottom?
Nobody really knows. But there are indicators which can help to gauge the risk on further detoriation.
One of my preferred indicators is the amount of shares trading above there 50-day moving average.
Another one I found is the margin debt for NYSE stocks from Brett Steenbarger from traderfeed.blogspot.
Margin debt gives an indication of risk appetite. The more appetite, the more margin debt is taken on. As markets are deleveraging, margin debt fell off the cliffs. The 20 week average change contracted around 42% the last 20-weeks.
An unprecedented decline. As long as this trend is not changing a reverse of the bear trend seems to be premature.

Data of margin debt can be found here.
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