Thursday 15 January 2009

Russia

What are the intentions of Ukraine in blocking the Russian gas? What started as the annual stand-off seems to be escalating. If it is really Ukrainia refusing of transitting gas to Europe than these girls/boys are playing with fire. Hey, let’s start a major political crisis. Because Russia is certainly feeling the bite. Alfa Bank Research estimates that Gazprom is losing up to 120 million USD a day. No harm done so far, but it can not continue too long. Even more, Russia is losing another 50 million USD per day in forgone export duties.

Bad timing. The Russians are on a full scale currency devaluation to adjust to lower oil prices. The ruble is on a 6 year low versus the dollar with 31.704. The Russian Micex follows the currency and is going down. Not the right time to tease them.

And Ukraine
is also feeling the heat as investors are leaving the local stock and other financial markets.


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